Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cardinals vs. Giants
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Cardinals are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Marquise Brown has run a route on 91.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Marquise Brown has been among the least effective receivers in football, averaging a lowly 6.96 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 11th percentile among wide receivers
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
