Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-109/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-109) after it opened @ 44.5 (-112).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to total 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews has put up a monstrous 79.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to be a much smaller part of his offense’s air attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (29.9% in games he has played).
Mark Andrews has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching a mere 65.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 34.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards