Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (+100) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Luke Musgrave to earn 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (58.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards