Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kylen Granson from EV Insight

Kylen GransonReceiving Yards

Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-120) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kylen Granson to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Kylen Granson has received a monstrous 9.1% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Kylen Granson’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.6% to 66.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards