Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 46.5 (-115) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a big 10.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to total 8.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.2 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Kyle Pitts’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 24.4%.
Kyle Pitts’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, compiling just 2.37 yards-per-target vs a 8.66 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards