Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-114/-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Patriots have been the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
- The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- Kendrick Bourne’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.0% to 62.0%.
- Kendrick Bourne’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 7.75 yards-per-target vs a 9.64 figure last season.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
