Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 16.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.6 plays per game.
- Juwan Johnson’s ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.2% to 38.0%.
- Juwan Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling just 7.92 yards-per-target compared to a 9.21 rate last year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.48 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
