Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-127) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
- Juju Smith-Schuster has been among the best wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 60.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.84 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 9th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
