Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bengals vs. Ravens
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith Jr. to accrue 5.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
- Irv Smith Jr. has been a big part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 13.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.2% to 61.5%.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s receiving efficiency has declined this year, notching a mere 2.86 yards-per-target compared to a 5.82 figure last year.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 7.11 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
