Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 17.5 (-120) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to earn 4.3 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards