Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ian Thomas from EV Insight

Ian ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 13.5 (-148) after it opened @ 14.5 (-130).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.6 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 5th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Ian Thomas has been among the worst pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 14.0 yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile among TEs.
The New York Giants pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, surrendering 6.70 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards