Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to garner 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- Hunter Henry has compiled a monstrous 46.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry’s 34.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 88th percentile for tight ends.
- Hunter Henry has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 36.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
- Hunter Henry has been among the most effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging a stellar 8.47 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.3 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has been among the worst tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 2.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 4th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
