Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
George PickensReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-114) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Steelers have been the most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 75.4% pass rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to total 7.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to be much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.4% in games he has played).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- George Pickens has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 126.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.2%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
