Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-114).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Zach Wilson this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Jets are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, hauling in just 61.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 19th percentile among WRs
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks grade out as the best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
