Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Evan Engram has run a route on 78.6% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 59.9 plays per game.
- Evan Engram has been among the least efficient receivers in football among TEs, averaging a measly 6.06 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 11th percentile.
- Evan Engram has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.86 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
