Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to total 6.3 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 26.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has put up a colossal 63.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Cons
- The 49ers are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 60.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
