Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cardinals vs. Giants
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to accumulate 6.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his offense’s passing attack this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (14.9% in games he has played).
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (60.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Giants are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Darren Waller’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.1% to 58.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
