Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Giants vs. Panthers
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 8.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 8.5 (-115) after it opened @ 9.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.74 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-most in the league.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have utilized play action on 28.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Giants have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 37.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
18
Receiving Yards
18
Receiving Yards
