Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Raiders
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-108/-121).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-121) after it opened @ 29.5 (-113).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.2% pass rate.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to garner 4.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to be much more involved in his team’s air attack this week (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in football (75.1%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (75.1%).
Cons
- The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
