Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Eagles vs. Vikings
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accrue 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 19.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has put up a whopping 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (64.3%).
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
