Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-145/+106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-145) after it opened @ 43.5 (-119).

Pros

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.2% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore has totaled a monstrous 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among WRs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, catching a measly 58.7% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile among wideouts
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.0%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards