Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. CharkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, D.J. Chark’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- D.J. Chark has put up a colossal 74.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 57.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.0 plays per game.
- D.J. Chark has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing a mere 58.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 12th percentile among wide receivers
- The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 130.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
