Week 2 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to garner 8.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be a much bigger part of his team’s pass game this week (24.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.2% in games he has played).
Courtland Sutton has totaled a colossal 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
The Houston Texans defense has given up the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (164.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.

Cons

The Broncos are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
Courtland Sutton has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards