Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to garner 8.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to be a much bigger part of his team’s pass game this week (24.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.2% in games he has played).
- Courtland Sutton has totaled a colossal 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- The Houston Texans defense has given up the 5th-most receiving yards per game in football (164.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Broncos are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the bottom wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
