Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-120).
Pros
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 94.4% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 6.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
- Courtland Sutton has accrued a colossal 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among WRs.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 55.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. wideouts since the start of last season, giving up 9.10 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per snap.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Receiving Yards
49
Receiving Yards
