Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Buccaneers vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-132/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+102) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.2% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to garner 4.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has accumulated a whopping 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has been among the top pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 34.0 yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
