Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 57.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 8.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 59.9 plays per game.
- Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.4%.
- Christian Kirk has been among the weakest WRs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 4th percentile.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (61.2%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
