Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-120) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to notch 8.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Olave has put up a colossal 115.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wideouts.
- Chris Olave has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 66.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in the NFL (163.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 7th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
