Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Buccaneers vs. Bears
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to accrue 6.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Chris Godwin has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Chris Godwin has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 70.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 8th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
