Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Bengals
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-112/-118).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-118) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 66.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 18.8%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a mere 2.70 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 figure last year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.69 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
