WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Jets
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 8.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- CeeDee Lamb has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 28.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- CeeDee Lamb has been among the top WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 80.0 yards per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets defense has yielded the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 103.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
- The New York Jets pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, surrendering 6.67 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
