Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Calvin RidleyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Right now, Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (+106) after it opened @ 70.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
- Calvin Ridley has been among the most efficient receivers in the NFL, averaging a terrific 9.81 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects Calvin Ridley to be a less important option in his offense’s passing game this week (27.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (35.5% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
