NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to accumulate 10.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Brandin Cooks’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 56.4%.
- Brandin Cooks’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, notching a mere 5.86 yards-per-target compared to a 7.86 rate last season.
- The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
