Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Austin HooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Titans
Right now, Austin Hooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Hooper to total 4.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- Austin Hooper has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 12.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- Austin Hooper has garnered a whopping 8.1% of his offense’s air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-least pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 56.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
