Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 10.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 76.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The Lions rank as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 52.4% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has surrendered the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 114.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards
93
Receiving Yards
