Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Lions vs. Commanders
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 8.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 22.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has accounted for a monstrous 22.6% of his team’s air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.6% pass rate.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 65.3%.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a measly 5.85 yards-per-target compared to a 8.33 mark last year.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.69 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
77
Receiving Yards
77
Receiving Yards
