Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Albert OkwuegbunamReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 28.5 (-115) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects Albert Okwuegbunam to earn 5.3 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Albert Okwuegbunam to be a more integral piece of his offense’s passing offense this week (16.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.4% in games he has played).
- Albert Okwuegbunam’s ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 81.7% to 100.0%.
- Albert Okwuegbunam has been among the best TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- The Broncos are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
