Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 23.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Adam Trautman to be a more important option in his team’s passing offense this week (14.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.2% in games he has played).
- Adam Trautman’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 80.7% to 100.0%.
- Adam Trautman has been among the most effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging a terrific 9.39 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 30.43 seconds per snap.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
