Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Eagles vs. Vikings
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 74.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown has posted a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- A.J. Brown’s 72.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for WRs.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
