Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Eagles vs. Vikings
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-105) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Eagles have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.8% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
- A.J. Brown has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 80.0 yards per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a big 7-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
96
Receiving Yards
96
Receiving Yards
