Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 261.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 270.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (65.8%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.00 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in football.
- The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
297
Passing Yards
297
Passing Yards
