Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 254.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best precision passers in the league since the start of last season with a terrific 67.6% Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the most yards in the NFL (282.0 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.7 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
247
Passing Yards