Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 261.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 270.0 yards per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.2 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (65.8%).
The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.00 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in football.
The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
297
Passing Yards