Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 236.5 (-110) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 38.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 59.9 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (67.1%).
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 7.28 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.83 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
226
Passing Yards
226
Passing Yards
