Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 263.5 (-129) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 42.2 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.

Cons

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season (66.3%).
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
305
Passing Yards