Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
- The Denver Broncos defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Sam Howell has been among the least on-target QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a 56.9% Completion%, grading out in the 15th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.15 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards
233
Passing Yards
