Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Ryan Tannehill

Ryan TannehillPassing Yards

Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 217.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-least pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 56.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 33.9 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards