NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Russell Wilson’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 65.2% to 68.3%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the best per-play passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 8.13 yards-per-target while ranking in the 88th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (248.0 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 8.46 yards-per-target: the 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- The Broncos are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Russell Wilson to attempt 33.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Houston Texans defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
