Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 301.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 301.5 (-110) after it opened @ 306.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.7 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Patrick Mahomes’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.5% to 54.3%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
309
Passing Yards