Week 2 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 275.5 (-110) after it opened @ 276.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.2 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Cons

The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
Matthew Stafford’s passing efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 6.10 yards-per-target vs a 7.65 mark last year.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
307
Passing Yards