Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. 49ers
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Rams are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 58.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.6 plays per game.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.17 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
273
Passing Yards
273
Passing Yards
